Seven calculation rules on how Klopp will master the Nations League situation

In the stadium of Belgrade, while the floodlights flicker over the pitch, Jürgen Klopp looks at the upcoming task. Jürgen Klopp faces two tough matches with the national team. He wants to take the DFB eleven into the Nations League quarter‑finals. To improve the chances, a victory in Serbia is needed as soon as possible.

The national coach is planning a win on Friday at 20:45 in Serbia to secure the best possible starting position for a final on Monday at 20:45 in Berlin against the Netherlands. For Jürgen Klopp, the football business in the final group matches becomes a big calculation. Yet even a success in Belgrade does not guarantee a perfect starting position.

Complex group situation

The situation in Group 2 of the A‑League of the UEFA competition is complicated. The DFB eleven sits three points behind league leaders Holland and Greece in third place with five points. Serbia is winless at the bottom of the table. Only the teams in first and second place advance to the quarter‑finals.

As third‑placed team, one is either safe depending on the results in the other three groups of the top league, or must go into the relegation playoffs, which, like the knockout round, will take place at the end of March 2027. As fourth‑placed, the DFB selection would have to enter the relegation to the B‑League – or even be directly relegated. Since the UEFA rules give more weight to the head‑to‑head record for teams level on points than to the overall goal difference of all matches, there are many scenarios in the German group.

Seven possible scenarios

If Greece beats Holland, a draw for the DFB eleven against the Oranje is enough to progress.

If Holland beats Greece by at least two goals, Germany is guaranteed to advance with a win against the Oranje.

If Holland beats Greece by only one goal, Germany could still be eliminated even with a one‑goal win against the Oranje.

If Greece beats Holland, Germany must beat the Oranje to advance.

If Holland draws with Greece, Germany is guaranteed to advance with a win against the Oranje.

If Holland beats Greece, Germany can only advance with a win against the Oranje if Serbia beats Greece.

If Holland scores points against Greece, Germany is already eliminated after the Serbia match.