Bookmakers put Harry Kane ahead of Lamine Yamal, the debate persists

Bookmakers now place Harry Kane ahead of Lamine Yamal in the race for the Ballon d’Or, but journalists remain clearly divided. The Englishman has scored 73 goals with Bayern and the England national team, while the young Spaniard has already played in the World Cup, La Liga and a full season before turning 19.

The 2019 precedent shows the slim margin

The Ballon d’Or voting could be decided by a few choices placed very low on the ballots. In 2019, Lionel Messi had edged out Virgil van Dijk by seven points, 686 to 679, giving the Argentine his sixth trophy. Cristiano Ronaldo finished far behind with 476 points.

The voting system has changed: in 2019, 176 journalists ranked five players and awarded six points to the first choice. This year, 100 jurors compile a top‑10 with a scale of 15, 12, 10, 8, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point.

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A player regularly placed third or fourth can compensate for a lower number of first‑place votes, each position influencing the final verdict. A juror favoring Kylian Mbappé, Rodrigo Rodri or Lionel Messi can thus widen the gap between Kane and Yamal depending on the position he assigns them thereafter.

In the event of a total tie, the number of first‑place votes would separate the candidates, highlighting the importance of top votes.

Thus, the final result of the 2026 Ballon d’Or remains uncertain, each additional point potentially swinging the award between Harry Kane and Lamine Yamal.