Belgium’s third‑place finish keeps them out of Nations League playoffs

Belgium’s 4-1 defeat at the Stade de France left the Red Devils in third place behind France and Italy, yet the current standings mean they are unlikely to face relegation playoffs in the Nations League.

Why third place is not fatal

The loss, suffered on Monday evening in their fourth Nations League match, put Belgium one point behind Italy and four behind France. However, they rank among the two best third‑placed teams alongside Germany, a position that secures Division A status.

In contrast, the Turkish side have yet to earn a point and would need to overturn a nine‑goal deficit in two games to avoid dropping to Division B – a scenario described as an “utopia”.

What the numbers reveal

Analyst Maxime Chanot noted that the figures were harsh for the Diables Rouges, highlighting the 4-1 scoreline and the end of their first international spell under Mark Van Bommel.

Belgium must win to stay clear of Nations League relegation

When Rudi Garcia coached Belgium earlier, the team finished as the worst third‑placed side after a loss to Ukraine in March 2025. Today, however, Belgium sit ahead of Germany (five points), Wales (three) and Croatia (three), making them the strongest third‑placed team across the four Division A groups.

Projections from Football Meets Data suggest Belgium could finish second in their group, behind France and ahead of Italy, if they secure points in the remaining fixtures against Turkey in Izmir and Italy in Brussels.

Should Belgium fail to climb out of third place in those two matches, they would still avoid the playoffs, unlike the situation faced under Garcia when the team was forced into a relegation decider.

Stéphane Pauwels sharply attacks Van Bommel in Belgium

Overall, the combination of a solid third‑place ranking and favourable comparative statistics means the Red Devils are set to remain in Division A without the drama of a playoff showdown.