Belgium must win to stay clear of Nations League relegation

Four of the six group matches in the Nations League have already been played and the Belgium side – the Rode Duivels – sit third after a loss to France and Italy’s win over Turkey. Turkey sit on six points and enjoy a ten‑goal advantage in goal difference over Belgium. To guarantee second place, Belgium must beat Italy at home and then travel to Turkey and win there.

Current group standings

In Group A the standings are tight. Belgium are third, Turkey second with six points, while France have ten points from a possible twelve. Germany trail with five points and both Wales and Croatia sit on three. The goal‑difference gap of ten goals between Turkey and Belgium makes the fourth place virtually impossible for the Belgians.

Scenarios for Belgium

If Belgium defeat Italy on home soil and then overcome Turkey away, they will finish second and avoid any relegation play‑offs. A loss to Italy would lock Belgium into third place, but the competition rules state that the two best third‑placed teams remain in League A, so Belgium would still avoid the relegation play‑offs. The third‑place finish would also mean Belgium miss the quarter‑finals.

Implications for the knockout stage

Should Belgium finish third, they will not feature in the Nations League quarter‑finals. Potential opponents for the quarter‑finals include Spain, the Netherlands or Portugal, all of whom are already assured of progression. Spain have secured twelve points, England also sit on twelve, and Portugal sit on twelve, confirming their places in the last‑eight.

Portugal climbs, Belgium stalls as the Netherlands press

In the neighbouring group, the Netherlands and Greece both hold eight points and still have a decisive clash ahead. The Netherlands also face Germany, who have five points, while Serbia sit bottom with no points and appear a ‘bird for the cat’. If Germany beat the Netherlands and the Netherlands beat Greece, all three could finish on eleven points, creating a complex puzzle for quarter‑final qualification.

Croatia’s hopes of upsetting Spain were dashed by a 2‑1 defeat, leaving Spain with a perfect twelve points. England, having thrashed Croatia 0‑7, also sit on twelve points and enjoy a +11 goal difference, far ahead of Croatia’s –10. Portugal’s twelve points put them in a comfortable position, while Norway remain in contention, needing a win over Denmark to stay in the hunt.

The current ranking of third‑ and fourth‑placed teams in League A shows the top two third‑placed sides (projected Italy and Germany) stay safe, whereas the bottom two third‑placed sides (projected Norway and Croatia) face relegation play‑offs. Among fourth‑placed teams, the top two (projected Serbia and the Republic of Ireland) head to the A/B play‑offs, while the bottom two (Turkey and the Czech Republic) would be relegated directly to League B.