Abu Dhabi United Group faces valuation gap with Liverpool
An independent commission delivered a bombshell verdict last week, finding Manchester City guilty of almost all of the 115 charges levelled against them. The finding has intensified pressure on Sheikh Mansour and the Abu Dhabi United Group to consider selling their majority shareholding, with the club’s worth now being measured against Liverpool’s £5.5 billion valuation.
Commission verdict sparks sell‑off pressure
The commission’s decision, released on a Tuesday, concluded that Manchester City breached regulations in nearly every one of the 115 allegations. Fans and pundits have swiftly called for a sale, and former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher wrote in the Telegraph that divestment is the only route for the club to escape the “shame and guilt” of its wrongdoing. Prime Minister Andy Burnham added that he would be “really concerned” if the Abu Dhabi United Group were forced to divest. The mounting criticism has placed Sheikh Mansour and John Henry under unprecedented scrutiny.
Valuation comparison with Liverpool
In normal circumstances Sheikh Mansour would aim for a valuation exceeding £5 billion if he chose to sell City. City’s most recent reported revenue stood at almost £700 million, just shy of Liverpool’s £703 million turnover. Liverpool, after receiving investment from an Amit Bhatia‑led consortium, was recently valued at £5.5 billion. Unlike City, Liverpool own the freehold of their stadium, whereas City operate the Etihad on a long‑term lease from Manchester City Council.
The comparable brand profile and global reach of both clubs would give the Abu Dhabi United Group grounds to seek a revenue multiple similar to that achieved by Fenway Sports Group for Liverpool. Such a multiple would push City’s potential price close to the £5.5 billion mark set for its rival.
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Risks facing potential buyers
The commission’s ruling threatens the prospect of City being expelled from the Premier League, a scenario that would eradicate the club’s broadcast income of £276 million recorded in its latest accounts. Current sponsorship contracts likely contain exit clauses that could be triggered by a loss of top‑flight status, jeopardising the majority of the club’s turnover. Around ninety percent of City’s revenue currently derives from broadcasting and sponsorship deals, all now under threat.
Further legal challenges could arise, as Tottenham, Arsenal, Manchester United and Liverpool all reserved the right in September 2024 to seek compensation if any of the 115 charges are upheld. A precedent was set when Everton were ordered to pay £35 million to Burnley after a commission found their breach had contributed to Burnley’s 2022 relegation. Any buyer would therefore have to factor in potentially hefty compensation payments on top of lost revenue.
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The cumulative risk may deter investors to the point where no one is willing to pay for Sheikh Mansour’s stake, potentially forcing the Abu Dhabi United Group to relinquish the Etihad for little or no money. Conversely, a successful appeal could nullify the sanctions, and some purchasers might still offer an above‑market price to gain political influence in the Gulf. Regardless, the commission’s decision has created a seismic scenario for City’s ownership.