A suspicious €240,000 bet sheds light on the 2026 Ballon d’Or
Harry Kane was crowned 2026 Ballon d’Or ahead of Kylian Mbappé and Lamine Yamal at Monday’s ceremony at the London Palladium, while an internet user is said to have bet close to €240 000 on the Polymarket platform, raising suspicions of insider information use.
Delay and winner’s revelation
Due to traffic jams in London and a significant delay, the audience had to wait until 23:51 on Monday to learn the identity of the 2026 Ballon d’Or and witness the trophy presentation to Harry Kane. The evening proceeded without major controversy, but the suspense lasted until the very last moment.
Upside’s analysis of Polymarket
Upside entrusted the event coverage to Jean‑Guy Lebreton, who relayed the facts with the support of the Associated Press. The journalist highlighted the strange coincidence between the English striker’s victory and the suspicious bets appearing on Polymarket.
The specialised Upside site, which analyses predictive markets, identified unusual movements from several recently created accounts. These accounts, opened at the end of September or early October, immediately placed bets as soon as certain Ballon d’Or‑related markets opened.
“People who use these platforms, especially those who bet, have recurring habits. What alerted us was primarily the amounts that were wagered, so a little over $250 000, $264 000 to be exact,” explains Raphaël Pautard, co‑founder and CEO of Upside Group.
Suspicious bet and profit
Upside found that the bets generated a profit of around €180 000 ($200 000) with no losing bet for the twelve accounts examined. This modest return contrasts with the volume of wagers, which heightened suspicions of information abuse.
According to the expert, the bettor first wagered on Harry Kane’s victory, then sold those winning shares to reposition on the exact ranking of the top five places. He notably bet heavily against the consensus that placed Lamine Yamal ahead of Kylian Mbappé, wagering that Mbappé would finish ahead of Yamal.
Betting on the Ballon d’Or winner carries a lower risk than guessing the exact positions of two players, but the potential gain only increases by 20 to 30 % depending on the timing of the transaction. Raphaël Pautard concludes that “the game isn’t worth the candle,” emphasizing that the risk taken does not justify the limited profit.
Upside identified twelve accounts created between October 1 and October 20. Seven of them only bet on the 2026 Ballon d’Or evening, while six placed their wagers within fifteen minutes of creation and never played again.