Opta trims Belgium's World Cup odds to 1.6% after group stage

Belgium’s national side, the Rode Duivels, see their World Cup title odds cut to 1.6% after the group stage, according to Opta’s supercomputer. The model also revised their chances for each subsequent knockout round.

The team qualified for the round of 16 and emerged as group winners, despite a mixed group‑stage performance that included point ties with Egypt and Iran and a strong statement against New Zealand. The enthusiasm after friendly matches against Croatia and Tunisia was high.

Opta adjusted its percentages once the group phase concluded, assigning Belgium a 1.6% probability of winning the tournament while noting that fourteen other nations now have higher odds. The recalibration reflects the latest group‑stage outcomes.

The revised odds for later stages show Belgium with a 4% chance to reach the final, a 10.9% chance to make the semifinals, a 30.1% chance to reach the quarter‑finals, and a 56.9% chance to appear in the round of 16. These figures represent the best ever performance odds for the Belgian side at a World Cup.

After the draws with Egypt and Iran, Opta gave Belgium a 27.28% chance of finishing as group winner. This probability underscored the uncertainty of the group‑stage results.

Opta’s simulation also predicts a favorable outcome for Belgium against Senegal, suggesting a good prospect in the upcoming knockout match. The Rode Duivels did not travel to America expecting to become world champions, but they remain optimistic about their path forward.