Supercomputer lets BVB suddenly shine with a 15% title chance

During the international break, a new look is being taken at the Bundesliga title chances. The supercomputer from data provider Opta has recalculated the probabilities after the first four matchdays. While Bayern Munich continues to be seen as the clear favourite, Borussia Dortmund (BVB) has suddenly been given a significantly higher chance.

Bayern Munich remains clear front‑runner

The simulation assigns the record champion Bayern Munich a probability of 77.91 %, a slight increase compared with the 76.7 % before the season. Thus Bayern remains the clear front‑runner in the current forecast.

BVB's rise in the odds

Especially striking is the result for Borussia Dortmund. The team of Niko Kovač now receives a title chance of 15.28 %, almost double the pre‑season forecast of 8.7 %. After four wins, the record of the black‑yellow side is still flawless.

In contrast, Bayer Leverkusen had to accept a decline. In the actual table the club sits in fifth place; its chances fell from 5.0 % to 3.15 %. After an opening‑day defeat to Elversberg, the factory side nevertheless collected seven points and hopes to continue the positive trend after the international break.

In fourth place currently leads SC Freiburg, whose chances have risen slightly from 1.1 % to 1.89 %. RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart also had to record losses: before the season they each had 2.7 %, currently they stand at 0.67 % and 0.48 % respectively.

At the bottom of the table the situation appears more balanced. Borussia Mönchengladbach is rated with 38.07 % as the most likely relegation candidate, while it also has the highest probability for the relegation playoff at 12.3 %. Union Berlin and Hamburger SV are also in the relegation battle with 31.46 % and 30.87 % respectively.

With only four matches played, the season is still fresh and the data set small. The forecasts can change dramatically as the season progresses, with all figures being merely simulations.