Red Devils one step away from the top spot, improbable Izmir
Here’s the contrast: on Thursday in Turkey, the Red Devils are about to formalise their seeded status for the Euro 2028 qualifiers, while the only way to lose it would be a heavy defeat in Izmir followed by an unlikely chain of events on the final matchday.
Football is an inexact science, but such a scenario would be almost fictional. After an October month marked by four international fixtures, the European national teams return to a more conventional schedule. The final two matchdays of the Nations League group phase carry a double stake: to continue the adventure in the competition and to prepare for the Euro 2028 qualifiers.
The top three nations in each League A group, including Belgium, will be guaranteed a seeded position for the next European Championship qualifiers. This provides a valuable advantage at the draw. Although the Red Devils have not yet officially secured this status, projections give them a 99.99 % chance of achieving it. Three points behind the leader, the Belgians sit third in their group with six points, but can still finish first or last.
Their trip to Turkey on Thursday evening could allow them to definitively eliminate the last‑place scenario. A simple point share would be enough for Mark Van Bommel’s men to guarantee one of the top three spots.
Red Devils face a decisive test in the Nations League
Unlikely loss scenario
Even a defeat in Turkey would leave the Red Devils in a very favourable position, with the conditions needed for the last place seeming unlikely. For Belgium to finish last, they would need to lose their final two matches and Turkey to beat France on the final day. The Turks would also have to make up a nine‑goal deficit in goal difference, while the Belgians enjoy a one‑goal advantage.
Unless there is an unlikely turnaround, Belgium will join Spain, Portugal, France, England, the Netherlands, Greece and Italy in pot 1. These nations will therefore be the ones Belgium cannot face in the qualifiers. To reach the Nations League quarter‑finals, the Red Devils will need to collect at least four points from their final two matches.
The draw places Belgium in pot 1 alongside Spain, Portugal, France, England, the Netherlands, Greece and Italy. Live coverage of the Turkey‑Belgium match will be available from 6 p.m. on 12 November.