Red Devils count on French result in San Siro for top-two chance

If the Red Devils want to secure a top‑two place on Sunday, then after their victory in Turkey – where they collected nine points and sit virtually in second place – they must follow tonight’s clash between France and Italy at the San Siro, because the result could be decisive for their Nations League chances.

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Stand and direct challenge

With the victory in Turkey, the Red Devils have collected nine points and sit virtually in second place in their Nations League group.

That is one point fewer than France, but two points more than Italy.

Tonight, the clash between France and Italy is being played at the San Siro, a match that could become crucial for Belgium.

All scenarios show that Belgium must play Italy next weekend to secure a top‑two place.

Some are considering wearing a French shirt tonight to support the team.

Possible scenarios for the final matchday

If Les Bleus secure at least one point in Milan, for example by winning or drawing, they retain their lead over Italy.

In that case, a draw for Belgium against Italy would be sufficient to advance as the second team to the Nations League quarter‑finals.

Italy puts Belgium under pressure, France falls in Milan

The first meeting between France and Italy ended in a 1‑1 draw, indicating that a repeat of a draw would also be beneficial for Belgium.

Should Belgium go into the final day with a one‑point lead over Italy, another draw would be enough to retain second place.

A group win remains theoretically possible; in that scenario France would count two points more than Belgium.

If France loses to Turkey and Belgium beats Italy, Belgium jumps to first place in the group.

This is a very hopeful thought for the Red Devils.

The worst‑case scenario is that Italy wins, causing Belgium to drop to third place.

Therefore, on the final matchday Belgium must at least defeat Italy; a draw could still place them behind France, but the head‑to‑head would then favor France, who have two wins.

If they find their rhythm, the Red Devils defeat Turkey

The Red Devils therefore hope that Italy loses points against France.

Implications for group win and Euro‑2028

In an (unlikely) dream scenario, the Red Devils could achieve the group win, which provides an advantage in the next round because each group winner meets a second‑place team from another pool in the quarter‑finals.

A group win can also be important for qualification for Euro 2028, as the twelve group winners and the eight best second‑placed teams receive a direct spot.

Teams that miss those direct tickets get a final chance via the play‑offs, where the Nations League forms a possible lifeline.

Although a group win does not provide a direct Euro ticket, it can guarantee a place in the play‑offs if Belgium does not qualify through the regular qualification.

In those play‑offs, the best‑ranked available group winners from the Nations League receive priority.