Red Devils can secure Euro 2028 seed, unless defeat in Izmir

The Red Devils can secure their status as group leader for the Euro 2028 qualifiers on Thursday in Turkey. Only a heavy defeat in Izmir, followed by a particularly unlikely outcome on the final matchday, could still undermine that.

Chance of group leader and conditions

After a busy October month with four internationals, the European national teams again face a classic schedule. The last two matchdays of the group phase in the Nations League are crucial. The top three of each group in League A, in which Belgium plays, earn a spot as a group leader in the Euro qualifiers. This provides a clear advantage in the draw.

The Red Devils have not yet secured that status mathematically, but the chance of finishing next to the first draw pot is, according to calculations, negligibly small. Belgium sit third in the group with six points and can become either first or last. Thursday evening's away match against Turkey can, however, definitively eliminate the bottom place. A draw is sufficient for Mark Van Bommel's side to be sure of finishing among the top three.

Red Devils leave Belgium for Izmir before Nations League

Implications for Nations League and Euro 2028

Even with a defeat in Turkey, the Red Devils remain well placed, because many things would still have to go wrong for them to finish last. In that scenario Belgium would have to lose its two remaining matches. Turkey would then also need to win in France on the final matchday and overturn a large deficit in goal difference.

The Turks are currently at -9, compared with +1 for the Belgians. Unless a surprising turnaround occurs, Belgium will end up in pot 1 together with Spain, Portugal, France, England, the Netherlands, Greece and Italy.

Red Devils face a decisive test in the Nations League

For a place in the Nations League quarter‑finals the bar is set higher. Belgium must collect at least four points in its last two matches to guarantee a spot among the last eight.