PSG, FC Barcelona and Real Madrid see Yamal overtake Kane for the Ballon d'Or

The Ballon d’Or votes are finally closed, but prediction markets have just upended the hierarchy, placing Lamine Yamal ahead of Harry Kane, while Paris of the PSG club and Kylian Mbappé see their hopes drift away, sparking supporters' anger.

Since Monday evening, the one hundred journalists making up the Ballon d’Or jury can no longer change their vote. Each juror had to compile a list of ten players among the thirty nominees, the first receiving fifteen points and the tenth one point. The votes are therefore finally closed.

Prediction markets flip

For several weeks, Harry Kane held the top spot on prediction markets. Today, Polymarket shows an implied probability of about 45 % for Lamine Yamal, versus nearly 42 % for Kane. Kylian Mbappé is much further behind, marking a spectacular turnaround.

The official result will be revealed on October 26, in London. This date remains the only known deadline before the ceremony. The market figures do not correspond to the actual vote count.

The turnaround comes a few days after the Nations League match where Spain beat England 3‑2 at Wembley. Lamine Yamal opened the scoring in the second minute, before England responded. Harry Kane missed a penalty, then Álex Baena equalised before Mikel Oyarzabal delivered the final victory to Spain.

At nineteen, the FC Barcelona prodigy is officially among the thirty candidates for the 2026 Ballon d’Or. His world champion title with Spain and his outstanding season with Barça bolster his candidacy. Yamal is thus seen as one of the major faces of world football.

Harry Kane, for his part, has an impressive statistical record, both with Bayern and with England. L’Équipe already presented him as one of the favorites several months before the vote closure. The Yamal‑Kane comparison therefore constitutes a highly publicised duel.

Other contenders from PSG and Real

PSG sees Ousmane Dembélé, the 2025 Ballon d’Or winner, as well as Kylian Mbappé, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes among the thirty nominees. On the Real Madrid side, Kylian Mbappé and Jude Bellingham are also candidates. Despite these prestigious names, the markets clearly place Yamal and Kane above the other contenders.

This hierarchy could still evolve before the ceremony, even though the votes are now recorded. The suspense remains total, fueled by the fluctuations of prediction markets. The supporters of Paris and Mbappé remain angry about this unexpected turnaround.