Nations League: Zidane gives France a 16% chance of triumph

The French national team has recorded two wins in the group stages of the 2026‑2027 Nations League, raising its chances of lifting the trophy to 16% according to the latest forecasts from Football Meets Data. Under the direction of its new manager Zinédine Zidane, the Bleus secured their away matches in Turkey (0‑1) and Belgium (0‑1), despite the absence of Kylian Mbappé.

Favourable statistics for France

The forecasts place France among the two teams most likely to claim the title, alongside Spain which holds a 49% probability. Before the first two matches, the same source gave the Bleus only an 11% chance, ranking them third in the initial table.

After these successes, France's probability doubled, reaching a 22% chance of ultimate victory and a 65% chance of reaching the final scheduled for June 13, 2027. These figures reflect the immediate impact of the “Zizoumania” that appeals beyond traditional supporters.

Les Bleus impose their statistical superiority on Belgium

Context and outlook

Zinédine Zidane, successor to Didier Deschamps at the helm of the Bleus, has guided the tricolour side to two inaugural victories, marking a promising start to his tenure. The upcoming clashes against Italy and then Belgium at the Stade de France will be decisive in confirming or refuting these forecasts.

France's progression comes in a context where Spain, the 2026 world champion, remains a clear favourite. Nevertheless, the Bleus have shown they can compete, even without their star striker.

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Analysts at Football Meets Data note that France's current momentum, backed by the new leadership of Zinédine Zidane, could still influence the probabilities as the competition progresses.