Nations League: the scenario that could eliminate the Blues
On the fifth matchday of the Nations League, Italy beat the Blues 3‑1 this Thursday in Milan, leaving France in a favourable position but exposed to a catastrophic scenario that could drop them to third place and deny them the quarter‑finals.
After three wins and a draw during the September‑October gathering, the French team arrived in Milan in a very favourable position this Thursday, as part of the fifth matchday of the Nations League.
The Blues, already held by Italy in the first leg (1‑1), were undone at San Siro (3‑1) despite the early goal from Michael Olise and suffered their first defeat under Zinédine Zidane.
This defeat also deprived them of securing their ticket to the quarter‑finals before even their final group match against Turkey this Sunday (20:45) in Bordeaux.
Now second (10 points, +3) behind Italy (10 points, +5), the Blues still remain in a favourable playoff: they will reach the quarter‑finals if they do not lose to the Turks.
A defeat could also be enough if Belgium does not beat Italy, at the same time in Brussels.
Kylian Mbappé's partner, the sole scorer in the first leg (1‑0) against the Turks and expected this Sunday by Zinédine Zidane, is not yet out of trouble.
Upamecano leaves the Blues, squad seeks replacement before Turkey
Elimination scenario
In case of a defeat against Turkey, who have not yet earned any point in five matches, the Blues' tally would remain stuck at 10 points.
If Belgium wins against Italy at the same time, the Red Devils, currently third with 9 points, would qualify and would even finish top of the group.
The second qualifying place would therefore be contested between France and Italy, each having 10 points.
According to the Nations League regulations, “in case of a tie on points between several teams in the same group at the end of the league phase”, the first criterion is the “greater number of points obtained in the group matches played between the teams concerned”.
Zidane sets a double negative record against Italy at San Siro
With a win and a draw against the Blues, which gave them four points (against one for the French team), the Italians would therefore finish second.
Third, the French team would thus be eliminated.
In short: it is better not to lose to avoid any scare.