Nations League: the fall of the French Blues under Zidane
After the 3‑1 defeat to Italy at the San Siro, the Bleus see their progress in the Nations League brutally halted, putting their qualification for the quarter‑finals at risk and reviving doubts around the Zinédine Zidane era.
Current group situation
Before the final matchday, the hierarchy tightened at the top and the Bleus lost their way. This loss of bearings made the rest of the group uncertain.
Italy sits atop the group with ten points and a goal difference of +5. France follows very closely, also on ten points but with a goal‑average of +3.
The Red Devils of Belgium remain in contention with nine points on the board. They stand ready to seize any opportunity.
Turkey, last in the group with zero points, has been eliminated since last month. Its exit no longer changes the dynamics of the standings.
Elimination scenarios
This setback at the San Siro marks the first failure of the Zinédine Zidane era. It forces the semi‑finalists of the last World Cup to look backward.
Zidane sets a double negative record against Italy at San Siro
Even if Kylian Mbappé's teammates keep their destiny in hand, a nightmarish scenario looms. A surprise defeat could turn the autumn campaign into a historic fiasco.
The disaster scenario hinges on a home defeat for the Bleus against Turkey, combined with a Belgian victory over Italy. This combination would create a pure and simple elimination already in the group stage.
In that case, Belgium would seize first place with twelve points, while France and Italy would be tied on ten points. The table would thus tighten around a fierce battle.
UEFA's regulations prioritize head‑to‑head matchups in case of a tie, rendering goal difference irrelevant. The first tiebreaker then becomes the record of duels between the teams concerned.
The Bleus' record against the Italians is negative: a 1‑1 draw in the first leg followed by a 3‑1 defeat in Milan. These results leave France with only one point out of a possible six against the Nazionale.
With that single point, France would inevitably be overtaken by Italy if both teams finish level on points. Goal difference cannot compensate for this direct disadvantage.
Thus, for Zinédine Zidane and his men, the equation is simple: an absolute prohibition on losing this Sunday evening. A positive result is essential to stay in contention.