Kane's Ballon d'Or dreams fade, Yamal takes the favourite role

Harry Kane, the English national striker of FC Bayern Munich, has captured the hearts of Munich fans with 73 goals in the 2025/26 season and the double of league title and German Cup, but the current betting odds for the Ballon d’Or on 26 October in London are already around 40 percent.

His performances have not only secured the title win, but also cemented his status as an absolute world‑class player. In the 2025/26 season Kane scored an incredible 73 goals and contributed significantly to the double of league title and German Cup. Munich fans have already embraced him in attack, and his name is synonymous with the club’s offensive power.

Betting market reveals doubts

On the crypto‑betting platform Polymarket.com users can wager in real time on the outcome of the Ballon d’Or, creating a precise picture of sentiment. At the beginning of September the odds for a Kane win were above 67 percent, but they have since fallen to around 39‑41 percent. This abrupt drop makes the former favourite strongly doubt his status.

Yamal takes the lead

The Spanish striker Lamine Yamal of FC Barcelona benefits from the trend reversal. In the forecasts he has already overtaken Kane and his chance of winning has recently risen to as much as 53 percent. Thus Yamal now stands as the new top favourite in the race for the Ballon d’Or.

Evaluation period ended, jury deadline

The official evaluation period runs from 1 August 2025 to the World Cup final on 19 July 2026 and has already expired. Current international matches, such as those in the Nations League, therefore have no impact on the decision. At the time of the odds development the international journalists jury was still authorised to submit its final votes until 28 September. The jury therefore had a decisive influence, because its votes directly affect the market odds.

In the betting scene there is now intense speculation about whether possible leaks of individual votes or internal tendencies of the jury could have triggered the sharp decline of the Kane quote. If the market signal is correct, the Bayern star would have to suffer a bitter flop at the awards ceremony in London at the end of October.

Despite the falling odds the enthusiasm of Bayern fans remains undiminished; many hope that the double of league title and cup can still boost the Ballon d’Or title. The discussion on social media, however, is increasingly revolving around whether individual awards can still do justice to the collective success.

The contrast between the brilliant season of Kane and the waning confidence of the betting community highlights how volatile the assessment of the Ballon d’Or can be. Observers will watch the awards ceremony on 26 October closely to see whether the English national striker can still save his dream.