If the public chose the Ballon d’Or, Messi would be first

The 75th edition of the Ballon d’Or will be presented this Monday evening in London, at a ceremony organized by France Football. A JD Sports study explores what would happen if the public were allowed to vote, revealing the potential favourite.

The current voting system

The winner will be chosen by a panel of one hundred journalists, with each country in the Top 100 of the FIFA rankings represented. This method has relied on professional voting since the trophy’s creation in 1956.

From 2010 to 2021, national team captains and managers also took part, following a rapprochement with FIFA. However, the public has never been allowed to express an opinion in the process.

Scenario of a popular vote

The JD Sports survey first measured the volume of Google searches linking the candidates’ names to the term “Ballon d’Or”. It then weighted this data with the global monthly average of searches “[name] + shirt”, the evolution of shirt searches from April to September (Keywordtool.io) and the number of Wikipedia page views last month (Wikimedia Cloud Services).

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In the last month, Lionel Messi generated 178,000 queries, ahead of Kylian Mbappé (81,000), Lamine Yamal (62,000) and Harry Kane (55,000). These figures illustrate the public’s interest in these players.

By combining all criteria, JD Sports established the following top 5: Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappé, Erling Haaland, Lamine Yamal and Jude Bellingham. Harry Kane ranks seventh, while the defending winner Ousmane Dembélé does not even appear in the top 10.

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The official vote will nevertheless remain in the hands of journalists, but the study shows that, if the public were consulted, the trophy would resemble more of a popularity contest, with Messi at the top of the ranking.