France blocks Polymarket as predictive market boom meets regulation

While predictive markets surged after the last World Cup, France moved to block Polymarket, pitting rapid user growth against mounting regulatory anxiety. The contrast underscores a clash between a billion‑dollar trading boom and a government determined to enforce tighter controls.

Explosive growth of predictive markets

Predictive markets capitalised on the recent World Cup, with billions of dollars exchanged around the matches. Polymarket emerged as one of the principal beneficiaries of that surge.

As explained by L’Équipe, the platform’s visitation had tripled, even though financial transactions for French residents were already prohibited since November 2024.

Early in 2026, the French‑resident traffic to Polymarket was reported to have multiplied by three compared with the end of the previous year, indicating a sharp acceleration.

Significant sums were reportedly placed on outcomes surrounding municipal elections, highlighting the platform’s appeal for political betting.

French regulator’s decisive action

The National Gaming Authority (L’ANJ) flagged additional concerns, including a case of alleged weather‑sensor manipulation near Roissy that prompted a complaint from Météo France and an official investigation.

The regulator also criticised the platform’s lack of mechanisms to identify users and verify their probity, deeming existing safeguards insufficient.

L’ANJ assessed that such platforms present “a degree of dangerousness far higher” than the legal gambling market.

Consequently, Polymarket faced a total administrative block on 16 July for promoting an illegal offer. Although the site remains technically reachable via circumvention tools, the French stance is now unequivocal.

The stark contrast between the market’s meteoric rise and the firm regulatory response unchecked growth in predictive betting cannot continue without robust oversight.