Eredivisie xG table shows AZ soaring while Fortuna defies odds

While the conventional Eredivisie table lists clubs by points earned, the emerging xG table paints a very different picture of efficiency and chance. The first international break looms, and seven rounds have already been played, yet the ordinary standings fail to capture the full story.

The xG ranking compiled by FotMob evaluates how many points each side should have secured based on created chances and chances conceded. It highlights clubs that have either exceeded or fallen short of the points their expected‑goal profiles suggest they ought to have collected.

AZ overachieve despite modest xG

AZ sit atop the official Eredivisie table, a position they hold despite the xG list placing them only third. The data indicates they are three points short of what their underlying statistics would predict.

This efficiency stems from a balance of scoring roughly the number of goals expected while limiting opponents’ chances. By controlling matches and preserving momentum, AZ manage to convert opportunities at a higher rate than the xG model anticipates.

Fortuna's efficiency defies expectations

Fortuna have amassed thirteen points, sitting sixth in the real table, yet the xG ranking would have them on the bottom with merely five points.

They have recorded only seven expected goals but have already found the net thirteen times, indicating a remarkable conversion rate, often from long‑range attempts. Defensively, they concede fewer goals than expected, a fact that may reflect the influence of goalkeeper Mattijs Branderhorst, who ranks second for goals prevented with a figure of 3.4, while the third‑best figure stands at 0.8 and only Ronald Koeman Jr surpasses him.

PSV and Rotterdam clubs’ contrasting fortunes

PSV sit third in the actual standings after a defeat in Enschede, but the xG table places them fifth. They have turned nineteen point‑six expected goals into twenty‑four actual goals, while conceding ten goals roughly in line with expectations.

Among Rotterdam’s sides, Excelsior occupy seventh place, two points above what xG predicts, having scored fifteen goals from fewer than ten expected. Sparta, by contrast, lag behind, with only five points earned against an expected nine, scoring ten from twelve point‑four expected and allowing more goals than the model forecasts. These disparities underline how goal‑scoring efficiency separates the two clubs.