English clubs face a bleak Champions League future as City’s era wanes

When Manchester City finally conquered Europe, they were barely in Europe; now, for a rather different reason, they might miss next season’s Champions League. City’s long‑awaited triumph in 2023 came at Istanbul’s Atatürk Stadium, a few miles from Asia, and the club are now in their 16th consecutive campaign, which could be their last amid looming punishments.

City’s European record and coefficient drop

City have not dominated the competition as many predicted. Their last two campaigns ended in the round of 24 and the round of 16, and they moved from topping UEFA’s club coefficient to sixth, based mainly on points gathered between 2022 and 2024. Removing them would leave Arsenal as the sole English side in the top seven of the coefficient table.

Premier League depth versus knockout reality

Despite the coefficient decline, the Premier League has supplied five different finalists in the last eight seasons – Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, City and Arsenal – showing depth of quality. Yet when the quarter‑finals arrived last season, only Arsenal and Liverpool remained, and Liverpool were dispatched emphatically by Paris Saint‑Germain.

Who could fill the void?

Arsenal appear the most likely to carry the English challenge forward, with Mikel Arteta’s side regularly reaching the latter stages. Liverpool could also contend, having finished first and third in the league phase in successive seasons, but they are in transition after Jurgen Klopp’s departure. Manchester United have become Champions League irregulars, reaching the last eight only twice since Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement.

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Chelsea, now under Clearlake Capital and Todd Boehly, have a solitary top‑five finish and, despite winning the Club World Cup, have regressed continentally after spending around £2 bn on players. Tottenham, after a summer of heavy spending, sit in the relegation zone following consecutive 17th‑place finishes.

The upstarts and the odds of qualification

Aston Villa, guided by Unai Emery, impressed in their recent Champions League run by beating Bayern and reaching the quarter‑finals, but that squad has since broken up and may not return next year. Newcastle also illustrate how difficult it is for newcomers to sustain European campaigns while competing domestically.

With City’s potential exclusion, the faltering starts of United, Villa and Spurs, and the rise of clubs like Brighton, Brentford and Everton occupying top‑five spots, the English representation in Europe could become more varied, though still unlikely to challenge the dominance of Bayern or Barcelona.