Contrasting scenarios for the Red Devils in the Nations League
This Thursday and this Sunday, the Red Devils will play in Turkey and then against Italy in the final stage of the Nations League, with two possible wins that would open the door to the quarter‑finals, while any other result would leave qualification uncertain.
This Thursday and this Sunday, the Red Devils will play their two final group matches in the Nations League, one in Turkey and the other against Italy. After two wins and two defeats, including both losses to France, Belgium has several scenarios for what comes next. The ideal scenario is two wins, which would put Belgium into the quarter‑finals alongside France.
In that case, France would only depend on Belgium achieving a better result in Turkey than Italy does against the Blues. If Belgium and Italy obtain the same result, a decisive match will be played this Sunday. A Belgian win in that duel would guarantee second place in the group and qualification for the quarter‑finals.
Conversely, if Italy beats France and Belgium loses in Turkey, France and Italy will qualify. In this scenario, the Blues and the Squadra would reach ten points against six for Belgium. Mathematically, qualification would then slip away from Mark Van Bommel and his men.
The Sunday match would then become irrelevant for Belgium. Turkey, even with two wins against Belgium and France, could no longer qualify. A single point in Turkey could nevertheless benefit the Red Devils. Even if Italy wins in France, Belgium would still have the chance to take second place.
Red Devils leave Belgium for Izmir before Nations League
Thursday's result will determine who will approach the Belgium‑Italy duel from a position of strength. If Belgium achieves a better result in Turkey than Italy does in France, it would overtake the Squadra before the decisive match. In case of equal points, the head‑to‑head record will be the first tiebreaker. The fact that Belgium has already beaten Italy is an advantage.
Leandro Trossard and Mika Godts, Belgian forwards, appeared disappointed during the Nations League match against FRANCE on 5 OCTOBER 2026 in PARIS, according to the photo by Vincent published under the Discover label. This match was part of the group stage, matchday 4, group A1, of the UEFA Nations League tournament. This analysis appears in the Sports Football Red Devils section.
Retention rules and playoffs
The rule for staying in the elite of the Nations League was changed recently. Previously, the third‑placed teams in Division A had to play a playoff against the second‑placed teams in Division B, and the fourth‑placed teams were automatically relegated. Today, only the two worst third‑placed teams and the two best second‑placed teams from the lower division will contest a playoff next March.
Bommel warns Belgium, the lesson from France before Izmir
With six points, Belgium is currently the best third‑placed team, which exempts it for now from a playoff. Germany has five points, while Wales and Croatia have three points in their respective groups. From this perspective, the situation remains favourable for the Belgians.